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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 4

Minnesota Vikings 19 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 3-B.Walsh 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +3.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.47 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP