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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:46) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to NYG 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 17-D.Harris to NYG 37 for 12 yards (26-T.Waynes).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.37 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model