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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 14

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model