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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 52

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:46) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to MIN 4, Center-57-D.Aiken, downed by NYG-43-C.Dahl.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.77 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -3.34 EP
KICK -2.30 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model