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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 34

Minnesota Vikings 16 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(:09) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.02 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model