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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 29 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.89 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP