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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 65

New York Giants 10 – Minnesota Vikings 39

What Actually Happened

(12:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 19-M.White.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.77 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model