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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 9

Minnesota Vikings 39 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(9:37) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 9, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP