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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 20

New York Giants 10 – Minnesota Vikings 42

What Actually Happened

(5:23) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 45-W.Tye.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.90 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 20, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP