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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2015-12-13 · 16:05 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌨 Snow Spread 6.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

OAK
41.6%
DEN
58.4%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN defense: -0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.088 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

OAK 19
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

OAK

Nate Allen S Out Knee
Neiron Ball LB Out Knee
Shelby Harris DE Questionable Ankle
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Knee
Rodney Hudson C Probable Ankle
Khalil Mack DE Probable Knee
Keith McGill CB Probable Ankle
Korey Toomer LB Probable Ankle
Charles Woodson S Probable Shoulder
Amari Cooper WR Probable Foot

DEN

Peyton Manning QB Out Foot
Danny Trevathan LB Out Concussion
T.J. Ward S Out Ankle
C.J. Anderson RB Questionable Ankle
Omar Bolden S Questionable Hamstring
David Bruton S Questionable Knee
Andre Caldwell WR Questionable Quadricep
Vernon Davis TE Questionable Concussion
Bennie Fowler WR Questionable Ankle
Ronnie Hillman RB Questionable Foot
Owen Daniels TE Probable Knee
Ryan Harris T Probable Knee
Evan Mathis G Probable Ankle
Matt Paradis C Probable Ankle
Shane Ray LB Probable Illness
Emmanuel Sanders WR Probable Ankle
Michael Schofield T Probable Ankle
Darian Stewart S Probable Hamstring
Louis Vasquez G Probable Groin
Vance Walker DE Probable Shoulder
DeMarcus Ware LB Probable Back
Sylvester Williams DT Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 15
–
DEN 12

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:47 FG DEN (9:47) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. OAK 0 – DEN 3
  • Q1 02:08 FG DEN (2:08) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. OAK 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 04:33 FG DEN (4:33) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. OAK 0 – DEN 9
  • Q2 00:10 FG DEN (:10) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. OAK 0 – DEN 12
  • Q3 09:54 TD LV (9:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-S.Roberts for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. OAK 6 – DEN 12
  • Q3 01:58 SAF LV (1:58) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler sacked at DEN 0 for -3 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], recovered by DEN-73-M.Garcia at DEN 0. 73-M.Garcia tackled in End Zone, SAFETY (95-B.Mayowa). OAK 9 – DEN 12
  • Q4 14:32 TD LV (14:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 81-M.Rivera for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 15 – DEN 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%

    (9:47) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:40) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to DEN 22, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (2:08) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:10) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to DEN 25, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to LV 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-J.Ross MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 35. 13-J.Ross to LV 35 for no gain (54-B.Marshall).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 60%

    (7:56) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler left end pushed ob at LV 32 for 5 yards (53-M.Smith).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (4:33) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:44) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to DEN 37, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (:10) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:14) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to LV 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:52) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to DEN 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 24 for 9 yards (54-K.Toomer).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 42%

    (4:44) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to DEN 11, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:48) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to LV 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-J.Ross to LV 47 for 7 yards (26-D.Stewart; 40-J.Thompson).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%

    (2:45) 7-M.King punts 47 yards to DEN 2, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:55) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to DEN 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-E.Sanders MUFFS catch, touched at DEN 15, RECOVERED by LV-59-J.Condo at DEN 11. 59-J.Condo to DEN 11 for no gain (85-V.Green).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 74%

    (10:27) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:57) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to DEN 14, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:02) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LV 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-J.Ross pushed ob at DEN 47 for 22 yards (36-K.Webster).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 84%

    (5:12) 11-S.Janikowski 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:50) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete deep left to 80-V.Davis.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 79 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:32) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete deep middle to 88-D.Thomas [96-D.Autry].