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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 44

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 12

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to DEN 11, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.85 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model