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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 17

Denver Broncos 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.23 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model