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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 80

Denver Broncos 12 – Las Vegas Raiders 15

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LV 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-J.Ross pushed ob at DEN 47 for 22 yards (36-K.Webster).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.17 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model