Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 15 – Denver Broncos 12

(8:57) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to DEN 14, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.36 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -2.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model