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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 25

Las Vegas Raiders 15 – Denver Broncos 12

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 11-S.Janikowski 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model