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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 11

Denver Broncos 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.33 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model