Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 69

Denver Broncos 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to LV 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-J.Ross MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 35. 13-J.Ross to LV 35 for no gain (54-B.Marshall).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model