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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 62

Denver Broncos 12 – Las Vegas Raiders 15

What Actually Happened

(3:50) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete deep left to 80-V.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.49 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model