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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 2

Denver Broncos 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(:10) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +3.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP