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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 23

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.05 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model