Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 90

Denver Broncos 12 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(3:48) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to LV 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-J.Ross to LV 47 for 7 yards (26-D.Stewart; 40-J.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.90 EP
66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model