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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Monday 2015-11-16 · 20:30 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

HOU
27.1%
CIN
72.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.341 vs Brian Hoyer (HOU) +0.125 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: -0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • HOU on 4 more days rest than CIN

Predicted Final Score

HOU 18
–
CIN 27
Projected margin: CIN by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

HOU

Jadeveon Clowney LB Out Back
Kareem Jackson CB Out Ankle
Duane Brown T Probable Concussion
Max Bullough LB Probable Shoulder
Akeem Dent LB Probable Hamstring
Kurtis Drummond S Probable Concussion
Charles James CB Probable Foot
Ben Jones C Probable Thumb
Benardrick McKinney LB Probable Concussion
Derek Newton T Probable Knee
Chris Polk RB Probable Knee
Cecil Shorts WR Probable Hamstring
Nate Washington WR Probable Hip

CIN

Andre Smith T Out Concussion
Rey Maualuga LB Probable Calf
Kevin Zeitler G Probable Ankle
Vontaze Burfict LB Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 10
–
CIN 6

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:33 FG CIN (1:33) 2-M.Nugent 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. HOU 0 – CIN 3
  • Q2 12:20 FG HOU (12:20) 8-N.Novak 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 3 – CIN 3
  • Q2 05:31 FG CIN (5:31) 2-M.Nugent 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. HOU 3 – CIN 6
  • Q4 14:27 TD HOU (14:27) 6-T.Yates pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – CIN 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:56) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-K.Mumphery ran ob at HOU 22 for 10 yards (81-T.Kroft).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 64 yards to CIN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to CIN 24 for 13 yards (31-C.James).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 36%

    (8:22) 10-K.Huber punts 29 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 16 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:12) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to CIN 46, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to CIN 49 for 3 yards (53-M.Bullough; 57-J.Tuggle).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 20 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 85%

    (1:33) 2-M.Nugent 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (12:20) 8-N.Novak 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 90%

    (5:31) 2-M.Nugent 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (4:01) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-B.Tate MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 17. 19-B.Tate to CIN 25 for 8 yards (21-D.Morris).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 24%

    (:41) 10-K.Huber punts 22 yards to HOU 29, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (:06) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass deep middle intended for 18-C.Shorts III INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Nelson at CIN -2. Touchback.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 48%

    (10:56) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 36%

    (5:38) 9-S.Lechler punts 37 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:33) 10-K.Huber punts 59 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-26-J.Shaw.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (13:00) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to HOU 39, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-B.Tate to CIN 22 for 8 yards (28-A.Blue; 53-M.Bullough).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 18 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:57) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to HOU 38, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to CIN 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-21-D.Morris.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:07) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to HOU 36, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-51-C.Carter.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%

    (4:07) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-B.Tate to CIN 19 for 11 yards (35-E.Pleasant; 53-M.Bullough).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 68%

    (:50) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 18-A.Green to HOU 23 for 10 yards (27-Q.Demps). FUMBLES (27-Q.Demps), RECOVERED by HOU-27-Q.Demps at HOU 22. 27-Q.Demps to HOU 22 for no gain (18-A.Green). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.