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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 10-K.Huber punts 29 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.84 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model