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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 65

Houston Texans 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-B.Tate MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 17. 19-B.Tate to CIN 25 for 8 yards (21-D.Morris).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.87 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model