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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 51

Houston Texans 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-B.Tate to CIN 19 for 11 yards (35-E.Pleasant; 53-M.Bullough).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.59 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model