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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 56

Houston Texans 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(:06) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass deep middle intended for 18-C.Shorts III INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Nelson at CIN -2. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.73 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -1.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EP