4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 24

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 2-M.Nugent 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.00 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model