Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(:41) 10-K.Huber punts 22 yards to HOU 29, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.07 EP
72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -1.94 EP

KICK -0.82 EP

24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
76% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model