Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 59

Houston Texans 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

(9:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to CIN 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-21-D.Morris.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.32 EP
63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model