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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-K.Mumphery ran ob at HOU 22 for 10 yards (81-T.Kroft).

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.70 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model