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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 33

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:50) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 18-A.Green to HOU 23 for 10 yards (27-Q.Demps). FUMBLES (27-Q.Demps), RECOVERED by HOU-27-Q.Demps at HOU 22. 27-Q.Demps to HOU 22 for no gain (18-A.Green). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.66 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP