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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to HOU 39, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.15 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP