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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Thursday 2015-11-12 · 20:25 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 💨 Windy Spread 2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

BUF
44.2%
NYJ
55.8%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph
  • QB edge to NYJ: Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) +0.167 vs Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.169 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 20
–
NYJ 23
Projected margin: NYJ by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

BUF

Kyle Williams DT Out Knee
Seantrel Henderson T Questionable Illness
Cyrus Kouandjio T Questionable Knee
LeSean McCoy RB Probable Shoulder
Sammy Watkins WR Probable Ankle
Mario Williams DE Probable Calf

NYJ

Dion Bailey S Out Ankle
Willie Colon G Out Knee
Calvin Pryor S Out Ankle
Antonio Cromartie CB Doubtful Quadricep
Bilal Powell RB Doubtful Ankle
Buster Skrine CB Questionable Shoulder
Tommy Bohanon RB Probable Shoulder
Kellen Davis TE Probable Hand
Eric Decker WR Probable Knee
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Probable left Thumb
Chris Ivory RB Probable Hamstring
Jeremy Kerley WR Probable Illness
Nick Mangold C Probable Neck
Brandon Marshall WR Probable Ankle
Dexter McDougle CB Probable Hand
Stevan Ridley RB Probable Knee
Geno Smith QB Probable left Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 22
–
NYJ 17

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:03 FG NYJ (4:03) 8-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. BUF 0 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 05:47 TD BUF 4-J.Gay kicks 70 yards from BUF 35 to NYJ -5. 19-D.Smith to NYJ 16 for 21 yards (30-B.Rambo). FUMBLES (30-B.Rambo), RECOVERED by BUF-27-Du.Williams at NYJ 19. 27-Du.Williams for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 05:51 FG BUF (5:51) 2-D.Carpenter 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 3 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 00:07 FG BUF (:07) 2-D.Carpenter 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 12 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 11:24 TD BUF (11:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep middle to 29-Ka.Williams for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 18 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 08:46 FG BUF (8:46) 2-D.Carpenter 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 22 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 04:46 TD NYJ (4:46) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 15-B.Marshall for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 22 – NYJ 9
  • Q4 07:28 TD NYJ (7:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 87-E.Decker for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 22 – NYJ 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:41) 4-R.Quigley punts 68 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-19-D.Smith.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 12 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:19) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to NYJ 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (11:55) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to BUF 12, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 24 for 12 yards (19-D.Smith).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:06) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to NYJ 16, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 13 for -3 yards (33-R.Brooks).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (4:03) 8-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 13 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:12) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to NYJ 17, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 22 for 5 yards (33-R.Brooks).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:39) 4-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to BUF 39, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 21-L.McKelvin.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 18%

    (10:32) 6-C.Schmidt punts 38 yards to NYJ 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-36-J.Meeks.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:03) 4-R.Quigley punts 49 yards to BUF 31, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-L.McKelvin to 50 for 19 yards (46-T.Purdum). PENALTY on BUF-37-N.Robey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 29.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 71%

    (5:51) 2-D.Carpenter 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (8:46) 2-D.Carpenter 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:57) 6-C.Schmidt punts 37 yards to NYJ 35, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 87%

    (14:57) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 15-B.Marshall to BUF 22 for -2 yards (28-R.Darby). NYJ-15-B.Marshall was injured during the play.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:36) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to NYJ 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-33-R.Brooks.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (11:44) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 21 for 1 yard (19-D.Smith). PENALTY on NYJ-45-R.Miles, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 21.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (10:22) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to NYJ 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 31 for 6 yards (33-R.Brooks; 81-M.Easley).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 14%

    (8:24) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 87-E.Decker to BUF 34 for 19 yards (21-L.McKelvin).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (5:17) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 13, and recovers at BUF 13. 6-C.Schmidt to BUF 13 for no gain (54-J.Lattimore).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (3:02) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short right to 47-K.Davis.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:35) 6-C.Schmidt punts 38 yards to NYJ 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 26 for 6 yards (36-J.Meeks). PENALTY on BUF-65-G.Sanborn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 26.