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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:12) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to NYJ 17, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 22 for 5 yards (33-R.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.58 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model