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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 22 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to NYJ 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 31 for 6 yards (33-R.Brooks; 81-M.Easley).

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.44 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP