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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 22 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(5:17) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 13, and recovers at BUF 13. 6-C.Schmidt to BUF 13 for no gain (54-J.Lattimore).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model