Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 80

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 4-R.Quigley punts 49 yards to BUF 31, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-L.McKelvin to 50 for 19 yards (46-T.Purdum). PENALTY on BUF-37-N.Robey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.61 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model