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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 22 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to NYJ 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-33-R.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.57 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 28, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP