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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 22 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(:35) 6-C.Schmidt punts 38 yards to NYJ 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 26 for 6 yards (36-J.Meeks). PENALTY on BUF-65-G.Sanborn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 26.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.57 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -0.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model