Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 84

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

(13:19) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to NYJ 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.72 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 84, worth -5.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model