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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 66

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to BUF 12, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 24 for 12 yards (19-D.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.40 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model