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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 50

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 6-C.Schmidt punts 38 yards to NYJ 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-36-J.Meeks.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.34 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -2.19 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model