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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 20

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 22

What Actually Happened

(14:57) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 15-B.Marshall to BUF 22 for -2 yards (28-R.Darby). NYJ-15-B.Marshall was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.10 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 20, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +2.72 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.18 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +1.01 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model