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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 79

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 4-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to BUF 39, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 21-L.McKelvin.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.94 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 79, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 36, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model