Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- NE offense: +0.254 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- NE on 7 more days rest than DAL
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to NE: Brandon Weeden (DAL) +0.218 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.352 EPA/dropback
- DAL offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 5
NE
DAL
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:24 FG NE (8:24) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – DAL 0
- Q1 01:52 FG DAL (1:52) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NE 3 – DAL 3
- Q2 03:42 TD NE (3:42) 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Quarterback keeper. NE 9 – DAL 3
- Q2 00:08 FG NE (:08) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 13 – DAL 3
- Q3 09:55 TD NE (9:55) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 33-D.Lewis for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete in the flat; ducked two tacklers for the score. NE 19 – DAL 3
- Q3 01:22 FG DAL (1:22) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NE 20 – DAL 6
- Q4 13:10 TD NE (13:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 11-J.Edelman for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN [76-G.Hardy]. NE 26 – DAL 6
- Q4 04:45 FG NE (4:45) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 30 – DAL 6
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(14:08) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 58 yards to NE 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-D.Amendola to NE 32 for 12 yards (23-C.White).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NE 4th & 19 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 52%
(12:49) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 28 yards to DAL 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(10:38) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 59 yards to NE 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-D.Amendola to DAL 45 for 25 yards (91-L.Ladouceur; 51-K.Wilber).
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Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 75%
(8:24) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 33Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 58% p(FG) 71%
(1:52) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
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Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EPp(convert) 63% p(FG) 26%
(14:17) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to DAL 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 20 for 8 yards (36-B.King). Return outside the yardline numbers left side of the field.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EPp(convert) 73%
(12:43) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to NE 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
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Q2 NE 4th & 15 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(8:49) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 60 yards to DAL 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 13 for -2 yards (18-M.Slater).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(6:08) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to NE 36, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-D.Amendola to NE 45 for 9 yards (57-D.Wilson).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(2:11) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to NE 42, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-D.Amendola to NE 48 for 6 yards (52-A.Gachkar). PENALTY on NE-26-L.Ryan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.
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Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(1:18) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to DAL 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 11 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(:59) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to NE 45, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%
(1:22) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
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Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 82%
(9:47) 29-L.Blount up the middle to DAL 27 for no gain (92-J.Mincey).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(7:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden scrambles right end to NE 46 for 8 yards (32-D.McCourty).
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Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 16 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%
(4:45) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 6 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(1:26) (Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden pass incomplete short left to 83-T.Williams. Pass incomplete lofted left corner of the end zone.
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