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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 71

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(12:43) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to NE 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP