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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 5

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.15 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 5, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP