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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 52

New England Patriots 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to DAL 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 20 for 8 yards (36-B.King). Return outside the yardline numbers left side of the field.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP