Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 78

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New England Patriots 0

(14:08) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 58 yards to NE 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-D.Amendola to NE 32 for 12 yards (23-C.White).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.01 EP
59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model