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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 16

New England Patriots 27 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(4:45) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.18 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model